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not they're going to come close to coming to some sort of agreement on the fiscal cliff. we can't increase spending. we are trying to rein it in and i am not that worried. there are distributional effects. lot of the lower end retailers, dollars or, drug stores have been big beneficiaries on extended unemployment benefits and their business will likely slow. cheryl: let me ask you something. you brought up the issue of the amount of retail dobbs but those are low-wage jobs. i assume the market does not want to see that. nice to see jobs added but not the right type of jobs. >> that is right. 50% of the jobs that were part of today's report of the low-income variety jobs. hospitality, leisure, retail, temporary jobs. we don't want to see that on wall street. we want to see the high-wage jobs because those are the jobs that will sustain a growing economy. they will be able to buy big-ticket items such as cars, a house, durable-goods. that is what you need to really grow this economy and right now we haven't heard any strategy of washington. all we're hearing about are extra
not they're going to come close to coming to some sort of agreement on the fiscal cliff. we can't increase spending. we are trying to rein it in and i am not that worried. there are distributional effects. lot of the lower end retailers, dollars or, drug stores have been big beneficiaries on extended unemployment benefits and their business will likely slow. cheryl: let me ask you something. you brought up the issue of the amount of retail dobbs but those are low-wage jobs. i assume the market...
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a large piece of the fiscal cliff is $94 billion in automatic government spending cuts over the next year. part of a trillion dollars in federal cuts over the next decade though even with these cuts the federal government is still projected to spend more each year over the next decade. to put this in perspective, one former cbo director says the costs of hurricane sandy could easily wipe out most of next year's savings. >> with a trillion dollar deficit right now. so if you cut 94 billion and nothing else changes you barely dented the deficit. the other programs are growing. we'll not see spending decline. in fact we'll likely have a emergency spending bill for sandy that is 60 billion. 94 is gone right there. >> even with a trillion dollars in cuts federal spending is on the way up every year starting with 3.5 trillion this fiscal year. nearly 3.6 trillion in 2014. 4 trillion by 2016 and 5 trillion by 2021. the cbo says even allowing 5 trillion in tax increases to hit the economy the next decade the federal government still spends $2.3 trillion more than it takes in. back to you. me
a large piece of the fiscal cliff is $94 billion in automatic government spending cuts over the next year. part of a trillion dollars in federal cuts over the next decade though even with these cuts the federal government is still projected to spend more each year over the next decade. to put this in perspective, one former cbo director says the costs of hurricane sandy could easily wipe out most of next year's savings. >> with a trillion dollar deficit right now. so if you cut 94 billion...
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i think the fiscal cliff we are spending a lot of time on and we will continue to see deleveraging of trades that have worked because of all of the tax implications. i don't think you can be sure this is the same santa claus rally that you want to blindly buy. last year was very painful to people who thought fundamentals would win out. you ran into deleveraging flows that were related to policy. if you don't think we are not going to have policy issues through the end of the year you are crazy. >> i think we all do the same, i believe that you can time the market and pick stocks. i know people believe that. it is interesting that today we talked about ranges in the s&p. i think we have done a good job. look at where we traded up to that 1425 that we have talked about being resistance number of times. i don't want to make a big deal out of this. today was an outside day from friday's range the low, lower than friday's low. it has been in a very defined range. i think we traded towards the upper end and i think we are heading twarts the 1375 and 1380 level again. you trade that range un
i think the fiscal cliff we are spending a lot of time on and we will continue to see deleveraging of trades that have worked because of all of the tax implications. i don't think you can be sure this is the same santa claus rally that you want to blindly buy. last year was very painful to people who thought fundamentals would win out. you ran into deleveraging flows that were related to policy. if you don't think we are not going to have policy issues through the end of the year you are crazy....
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dollar now threatening that we will go over the fiscal cliff. there's such a huge disconnect here, there's no backlash really about that, but there's backlash against ceo's speaking out. stuart: i can see that it. you're right, charles, take a victory lap. they've backed off. charles: this is not the kind of thing that you want a victory lap on. it's scary and i first thing you see is 2012 communities service report and the next thing on sustainability and another piece, 100 best companies to work for. you wouldn't know it's a restaurant company. these companies are bending over backwards to appease the media and the white house's agenda. stuarr: all right, charles, a victory lap. and everybody we've got two new at ten stories and both cost a whole lot of money of the first, the department of energy spending 120 million dollars for an electric battery research facility. and how this administration's track record on green energy investments is your money by the way. second, fast fooddchains forced to put calorie counts on their menus under obamac
dollar now threatening that we will go over the fiscal cliff. there's such a huge disconnect here, there's no backlash really about that, but there's backlash against ceo's speaking out. stuart: i can see that it. you're right, charles, take a victory lap. they've backed off. charles: this is not the kind of thing that you want a victory lap on. it's scary and i first thing you see is 2012 communities service report and the next thing on sustainability and another piece, 100 best companies to...
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cliff or what we should do about tax increases and spending cuts. if mr. boehner is the principal negotiator, what he had to say lasted all of 30 seconds. he simply came out and said look, if the president doesn't agree with our plan, the republican plan, he should submit a plan that could pass through congress. he has failed to do that. he said, however, and he used these words, that speaker boehner and the republicans are ready and eager to negotiate with the president. doesn't sound like there's any degree of compromise there. there's an extremely short statement, really didn't say much of anything. that's it, speaker boehner. mr. cantor is now speaking. again, he's keeping it very very short and very much to the point. but the principal negotiator had all of 30 seconds. that's it. we brought it to you live. >>> back to the judge. >> well i was sort of hoping he would say no new taxes no new spending no new borrowing, draw a line in the sand, do what you were sent there to do. they are becoming enablering of obama -- they are becoming enablers ob
cliff or what we should do about tax increases and spending cuts. if mr. boehner is the principal negotiator, what he had to say lasted all of 30 seconds. he simply came out and said look, if the president doesn't agree with our plan, the republican plan, he should submit a plan that could pass through congress. he has failed to do that. he said, however, and he used these words, that speaker boehner and the republicans are ready and eager to negotiate with the president. doesn't sound like...
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speak up for the fiscal cliff is part of the half trillion dollars in cuts to the pentagon. the defense has been saying we will not plan for sequestration's because they don't want to be cautious because it is like a gun to the head. they're now looking into planning for this because we are getting pretty late, and that may become a reality. back to you. melissa: rich edson, thank you so much. lori: let's continue this discussion. it is going to happen, it is exactly what the democrats want. according to scott hodge of the tax foundation. what are some alternatives to raising revenue? joining me with some ideas. to your point, you're written quite extensively on this topic. it seems the economy is poised to fall off the cliff and that's what the democrats and the president wants to happen. >> they want to allow all the bush tax cuts to expire. it happens naturally automatically. they don't even have to vote for it. in january we had to lower taxes for everybody. getting it very simply. lori: a lot of people are concerned. if we do go over the cliff, there's no resolution for
speak up for the fiscal cliff is part of the half trillion dollars in cuts to the pentagon. the defense has been saying we will not plan for sequestration's because they don't want to be cautious because it is like a gun to the head. they're now looking into planning for this because we are getting pretty late, and that may become a reality. back to you. melissa: rich edson, thank you so much. lori: let's continue this discussion. it is going to happen, it is exactly what the democrats want....
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they don't care about the fiscal cliff in detroit. they have been over that cliff. they have been there they did that. tracy: good luck with that though. unfortunately the lincoln is associated with your grandfather's car. they will need a lot of advertising. >> i'm ready to be a grandfather. i'm fine with that. tracy: ah. thanks, jeff. >> thanks. dennis: here with more on today's auto sales numbers we have jessica caldwell, senior analyst for edmunds.com. jessica, my gosh, we've got volkswagen up almost 30%, chrysler up 14%. even gm up 3.4%. this is a pretty good month, right? >> it's a pretty good month. we're looking at a really high start for the month of november. looks like it will be highest since we saw back in 2008 before we saw banks collapse and everything. i think a lot of reasons to be excited right now in the automotive industry. dennis: what brand sticks out to you or carmaker as a big winner doing far better than expected? >> i think honda this month. they had a rough year with the civic came out last year getting panned by critics. also the inventor
they don't care about the fiscal cliff in detroit. they have been over that cliff. they have been there they did that. tracy: good luck with that though. unfortunately the lincoln is associated with your grandfather's car. they will need a lot of advertising. >> i'm ready to be a grandfather. i'm fine with that. tracy: ah. thanks, jeff. >> thanks. dennis: here with more on today's auto sales numbers we have jessica caldwell, senior analyst for edmunds.com. jessica, my gosh, we've...
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still one top democrat said, don't listen to the rhetoric. >> going over the fiscal cliff is serious business and i'm here seriously trying to resolve it and i would hope the white house would get serious as well. >> speaker boehner this morning ssys there is no progress all you have to do is just listen to what's happening out there and you know there is progress? >> speaker boehner in his press conference said, quote, this is a moment for adult, for some adult leadership. kind of a slap at the president there, ashley. ashley: boy oh, boy. the rhetoric starting to get a little sharper with each passing day and hour. peter, on another issue what is the latest on the capitol visitors center being evacuated? >> looks like it may have been a false alarm. there were a number of fire trucks up here on capitol hill after the capital visitor center was evacuated. some of the streets around the capitol were closed off. our producers on the hill say the fire trucks are starting to leave. we have one report from the scanner, from the police and fire truck scanners that there may have been some
still one top democrat said, don't listen to the rhetoric. >> going over the fiscal cliff is serious business and i'm here seriously trying to resolve it and i would hope the white house would get serious as well. >> speaker boehner this morning ssys there is no progress all you have to do is just listen to what's happening out there and you know there is progress? >> speaker boehner in his press conference said, quote, this is a moment for adult, for some adult leadership....
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period well before the fiscal cliff concerns became center stage. i think those economic detier a's, components probably lead to reduced employment, and reduced consumers spending starting in the first quarter. this is an economic deterioration, probably amplified by the policy concerns, but nonetheless that has occurred, and is forcing our earnings numbers lower. we're now at 10 as a good example. >> you've managed to make adam parker look like a bull. you're looking for 1390 in the s&p for next year. he had 1167, but he's looking to 1434. >> so far, i think there are a number of folks that have yet to come out, but unfortunately we have to live with that status for a while. quite frankly investors are not being paid a ton. we start to rebound -- we'll have to get more optimistic. >>> good to talk with you as always. >> thanks for having me. >> see you soon. >>> what's going on with this rally? up 125 on the dow. so the kind of stocks that are moving today? >> i think it's really important to keep in mind so much of this year, when they write the t
period well before the fiscal cliff concerns became center stage. i think those economic detier a's, components probably lead to reduced employment, and reduced consumers spending starting in the first quarter. this is an economic deterioration, probably amplified by the policy concerns, but nonetheless that has occurred, and is forcing our earnings numbers lower. we're now at 10 as a good example. >> you've managed to make adam parker look like a bull. you're looking for 1390 in the...
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lori: republicans presenting a plan to avoid the fiscal cliff. first and foremost, avoiding increasing and eliminating deductions on of her earnings to raise an additional $8 billion. $1.2 trillion in new spending cuts. the white house, no surprise, already rejecting the plan. the president saying the gop plan is out of bounds because it does not include higher taxes on the wealthy. we are joined now by a chief economist. why does it seem the only solution to be satisfied with is to raise taxes on the wealthy? >> they clearly staked out this position during the campaign. they feel they have a mandate for it. i am sort of skeptical. the sticking point is the tax rate question on the wealthy. however, with that said, progress has been made in the sense that the republicans are not willing to raise taxes, not rates, on the rich. democrats are saying they are more open to entitlement cuts, if you will, reform, whatever you want to call it. they are making progress. [talking over each other] the question is: you know, how far are both sides willing to
lori: republicans presenting a plan to avoid the fiscal cliff. first and foremost, avoiding increasing and eliminating deductions on of her earnings to raise an additional $8 billion. $1.2 trillion in new spending cuts. the white house, no surprise, already rejecting the plan. the president saying the gop plan is out of bounds because it does not include higher taxes on the wealthy. we are joined now by a chief economist. why does it seem the only solution to be satisfied with is to raise taxes...
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i'm suffering from fiscal cliff fatigue i think it will get worse because the end of the year is approaching. melissa: thank you for coming on. lori: way to bring it home. spending cuts, looking at even more spending or the possibility of that. housing secretary donovan branding how he hopes to avoid a government bailout for the fha. it seems like more dollar signs out there to me, peter. >> that is right. the housing secretary cannot rule it out. washington is certainly closer to one after the latest audit of the fha fund has a capital reserve shortfall of $16.3 billion. the administration says it is too soon to say whether the fha will need treasury funding. >> can you assure us and the american people today as the secretary of hud and fha will not do that, or you don't know yet? >> senator, i wish i had a crystal ball and i could tell you we won't at the end of the year given the reports. obviously i am highly concerned about that possibility. >> to avoid a bailout agency is increasing fees and making other reforms. the administration says it will signal its intentions on the treasury bai
i'm suffering from fiscal cliff fatigue i think it will get worse because the end of the year is approaching. melissa: thank you for coming on. lori: way to bring it home. spending cuts, looking at even more spending or the possibility of that. housing secretary donovan branding how he hopes to avoid a government bailout for the fha. it seems like more dollar signs out there to me, peter. >> that is right. the housing secretary cannot rule it out. washington is certainly closer to one...
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plus, about a trillion dollars in spending cuts. speaker john boehner said the president's plan just wouldn't pass. unfortunately, the white house responded with their la-la land offer that couldn't pass the house. so basically they are at odds. david, here's what i've got, here's my calculation, rough back of the envelope, okay? when i can find the envelope. okay? it is president obama wants 800 billion dollars more in tax revenue from the rich in the form of higher tax rates. the republicans want about a trillion dollars more in spending cuts. david: uh-huh. stuart: the two sides are those dollar numbers apart. and you say what? david: i say i don't think the president cares if it passes the house. because if it passes, he gets everything he wants. he doubled the amount of tax income he wanted from the private sector because he wants many r in his proposal. -- he wants more in his proposal. if it doesn't pass, he gets automatic tax increases from everybody, more government money from the private sector. he gets big cuts in the mil
plus, about a trillion dollars in spending cuts. speaker john boehner said the president's plan just wouldn't pass. unfortunately, the white house responded with their la-la land offer that couldn't pass the house. so basically they are at odds. david, here's what i've got, here's my calculation, rough back of the envelope, okay? when i can find the envelope. okay? it is president obama wants 800 billion dollars more in tax revenue from the rich in the form of higher tax rates. the republicans...
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i think it's better than buying the shares back at this point because of this looming fiscal cliff and i think all these 103 companies that have done so are addressing exactly that fact, and i do hope that we can get our spending under control like he has in ethan allen. >> all right. good last word on that topic. up next, the case for a euro rally when we come back in about two minutes. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. >>> welcome back to the halftime show. eu finance ministers clashing today over a banking supervision plan. i hate when they do that will renewed arguments mean an end to the euro rally as we know it heading into 2013? ask kathy lean of bk asset management. she is live in
i think it's better than buying the shares back at this point because of this looming fiscal cliff and i think all these 103 companies that have done so are addressing exactly that fact, and i do hope that we can get our spending under control like he has in ethan allen. >> all right. good last word on that topic. up next, the case for a euro rally when we come back in about two minutes. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim...
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Nov 29, 2012
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. >> even with the fiscal cliff? >> they assume they'll get something done. >> i don't mean to be the party spoiler here. >> that's your role. >> we also see a rise in subprime credit. we also have to look at is this going to be cash we're spending or will we see a sharp increase -- >> that was my point. my uncle runs a big used car dealership. people spend money no matter what it takes. right? people will buy a used car on four credit cards. >> i think it is a lot of frugal fatigue out there as well. people are just sick of sifting on their wallets. they want to get out there and spend. jan, thank you for joining in. it's like a monkey cage sometimes over here. >>> now to jackie deangelis with a "market flash." >> keeping an eye on fluor. the new payment date is december 26th of this year versus january 3rd of next year. probably not a coincidence that they want to pay the dividends before the end of the year. this just another company change the date -- payment date or issuing a special dividend. ahead of that fisc
. >> even with the fiscal cliff? >> they assume they'll get something done. >> i don't mean to be the party spoiler here. >> that's your role. >> we also see a rise in subprime credit. we also have to look at is this going to be cash we're spending or will we see a sharp increase -- >> that was my point. my uncle runs a big used car dealership. people spend money no matter what it takes. right? people will buy a used car on four credit cards. >> i think...
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. >>> if we go over the fiscal cliff, global business travel association estimates that u.s. biz travel spending will take a $20 billion hit in the short term. but how about the long term outlook? find out next. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro. >>> what are the long term effects for business travel if the economy falls off the fiscal cliff? the gbta predicts the reduced deficits and lower interest rates will lead to growth in the economy and an increase in business travel spending. >>> welcome back. now to the weather channel. reynolds wolf is standing by. what is happening around the country today? >> the story is all west. everything is taking place out west. rain, some strong winds, even some snow. some places snow getting
. >>> if we go over the fiscal cliff, global business travel association estimates that u.s. biz travel spending will take a $20 billion hit in the short term. but how about the long term outlook? find out next. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the...
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Nov 29, 2012
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plus we had the election and fiscal cliff oncoming. with that, we still got over 2% growth. so even with some kind of drag from higher taxes and spending into next year, without a lot of those -- those severe head winds, you know, i just don't see how with a global -- coordinated global monetary easing policy from the central banks, how you're going to have a worser economy next year and therefore lower profits. >> joe? or josh? >> hi, tony. josh brown. i'm just curious, if you took a look at that gdp third quarter revision from this morning, one of the things i think jumped out most is that really all of the improvement comes as a result of both federal spending and then the other thing -- then the other thing that people don't want to see which is a lot of inventory restocking which i understand is seasonal. but now that's on the backs of the consumers, actually, taking those products out of stores to their homes. are we really going to be able to say that that was a good upward revision? even though the number went up? >> no. frankly, the market would have already priced
plus we had the election and fiscal cliff oncoming. with that, we still got over 2% growth. so even with some kind of drag from higher taxes and spending into next year, without a lot of those -- those severe head winds, you know, i just don't see how with a global -- coordinated global monetary easing policy from the central banks, how you're going to have a worser economy next year and therefore lower profits. >> joe? or josh? >> hi, tony. josh brown. i'm just curious, if you took...
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the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically week and counting before you think the equity market really drops significantly? >> if we do get a deal done do, we just maintain the 2% that we're stuck in with the high unemployment and not go down? or does it actually allow us to start growing again? is anybody talking growth? >> we're talking growth. >> is it possible to ever get back to that in this environment? >> it is. you have a lot of problems with the piece. >> do you briyou believe if you rote deficit -- two different ways. you either keep the government that you
the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically...
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. >> will the resolution of the fiscal cliff and even some progress on our long-term problems, knowing that at best we're just putting off austerity, sooner or later it's coming, right? higher taxes and lower government spending, right? you combine that with reinhardt, rogoff and the idea we're in a 2% world all of a sudden, would doing the fiscal cliff make it possible to do 5% or are we just -- we know austerity's coming and we know -- i'm saying we've got a lot of debt -- i'm saying that we are maybe in a new -- we might be in a new normal. is there any reason to think we could do a 4% or 5%? >> nobody wants to take an automatic hit. the number you want to achieve and achieve it quickly, that's one aspect, but no one wants a huge hit, for example, to defense spending. >> do you think we'll get to 7% in unemployment? >> i do. 6.9%. >> even though we're facing the same kind of austerity as europe. >> i think american companies put americans back to work. >> and freeing up the corporate cash will overcome -- >> get rid of the uncertainty. >> why would the cash be freed up? if you are r
. >> will the resolution of the fiscal cliff and even some progress on our long-term problems, knowing that at best we're just putting off austerity, sooner or later it's coming, right? higher taxes and lower government spending, right? you combine that with reinhardt, rogoff and the idea we're in a 2% world all of a sudden, would doing the fiscal cliff make it possible to do 5% or are we just -- we know austerity's coming and we know -- i'm saying we've got a lot of debt -- i'm saying...
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. >> so do you think we go off the fiscal cliff? >> no. all you've got to do -- you know what you've got to do on the tax side. that's simple. you have to palass a law that ss the law has to be overwritten. >> and what would be your position on that? >> i think it's the simple thing to do. obviously do what the president is saying, you know. he ran a campaign on it. the legitimacy of that. if you've got to act in three weeks, you're not going to revise the income tax code in three weeks. it may be perfectly legitimate. i think that both. personal and corporate need a lot of thought and a lot of revision. they're both broken. but you're not going to do that in three weeks. the challenge i see is in three weeks you've got to have some convincing balance of the tax side, the revenue side, with the expenditure side. it's inherent. you can't change the expenditures in three weeks. you can indicate intentions, but you can't -- >> what do you think happens then? >> i think you get some understanding about the kind of framework for dealing with th
. >> so do you think we go off the fiscal cliff? >> no. all you've got to do -- you know what you've got to do on the tax side. that's simple. you have to palass a law that ss the law has to be overwritten. >> and what would be your position on that? >> i think it's the simple thing to do. obviously do what the president is saying, you know. he ran a campaign on it. the legitimacy of that. if you've got to act in three weeks, you're not going to revise the income tax...